Arb WatcherBeta

+EV betting, explained

A +EV (positive expected value) bet is one where the price you're getting is better than the bet's real chance of winning. You won't win every one, but over many bets the edge adds up.

See today's +EV bets ›

Finding the fair price

Every sportsbook builds a cut (the vig) into its prices, so both sides add up to more than 100%. Take that cut out and you get the market's fair chance. When several books agree on that fair chance and one book offers a better price than fair, that price is +EV.

Fair chance from other books50% (fair price +100)
One book offers+115
Expected value per $100+$7.50

At a true 50% chance, +115 pays $115 half the time and loses $100 half the time: an average of +$7.50 every $100 you bet.

How our +EV list works

We keep the list strict on purpose. A price only shows when it beats the fair price from at least three other books that agree with each other, stays between -250 and +250, isn't on an exchange (fees), and our own model doesn't lean the other way. Strong means at least a 3% edge; lean means at least 2%.

Things to know

Questions

What does +EV mean in sports betting?

Positive expected value: the price pays more than the bet's real chance of winning is worth, so over many bets you expect to come out ahead.

How do you find +EV bets?

Remove the sportsbooks' cut to get a fair price, usually from several sharp books together, then look for any book offering better than that fair price.

Is +EV betting guaranteed profit?

No. Unlike an arb, a +EV bet can lose. The profit only shows up on average over many bets.